The New Orleans (4-5) visit the Carolina (3-6) on "Thursday Night Football" in a rematch of Week 6. The won that game 41-38, thanks to a 465-yard pa sing day from and a 52-yard game-winning field goal from Wil Lutz with just seconds on the clock. And while it's too early to write off the season for either team, probability says this matchup is more about pride -- if you buy into the whole "grown men need motivation" angle -- and, more concretely, draft order in the spring. But stranger things have happened. A year Blank Jersey ago, the started 1-5, had virtually no chance of qualifying for the postseason and then proceeded to rip off 10 straight regular-season wins, then they demoralized the , 30-0, in the wild-card game. And as recently as 2012, the limped to a 3-6 start only to have at-the-time franchise savior (Remember that!? Feels like a lifetime ago -- and probably longer for him) lead the team to seven straight victories a division title. Before that, you have to go back two decades. The were sitting at 3-6 in 1996, somehow finished 9-7, and not only that, won in the playoffs. Based on history, 3-6 outfits have a 3 percent chance of making the postseason, according to . And in terms of the 2016 season, the are looking at slightly better odds; pegs their postseason chances at 9 Tyler Glasnow Jersey percent, based on the rest of the league, and there's even a 5 percent chance they can still win the NFC South. The news is even better for the Saints -- they're looking at a 17 percent chance at January football and a 14 percent chance to do it as division champs. Whatever the math says, the reality is this, at least for Thursday night: The probabilities don't matter. That's right, we're replacing science with cliche. The longest journey begins with the first step. And for the Panthers and Saints, that means every game from here on out is of the must-win variety. So while neither will be officially eliminated by Friday morning, for all intents and purposes, it'll be a wrap on '16 for the loser. So what has to happen to keep hope alive? For the Panthers, it means finding a way to keep upright, which has been a daunting task to date; the offensive line ranks 26th in pa s protection, according to ' metrics. And these stats, courtesy of , are even more sobering: Newton's completion percentage drops from 64.6 to 43.5 when he's under pre Joe Musgrove Jersey sure. His yards per attempt go from 7.7. to 6.1, his TD/INT ratio drops from 2/1 to 1/1.5, and his pa ser rating plummets from 93.1 to 57.1. And for the Saints, that means continuing their upward trajectory of improving football. New Orleans is 4-2 in its last six games. Unfortunately, their overall record means the Saints started the season with three straight lo ses. Silver lining: Those lo ses were, it turns out, to three pretty good teams: the , and . And their two other lo ses came to two other pretty good teams -- the and, most recently, the . So there are reasons for optimism. And while the offense will always be of the high-powered variety as long as is around, the defense has been the Achilles heel for years. The group finished in 2015 and in 2014, and currently ranks 29th.But the unit is getting better. In Sunday's game against the ( , in case you mi sed it), the group allowed just 337 yards, which was their second-lowest total of the season. They also created forced critical interceptions and held Denver to just 13 points following four New Orleans turnovers. Oh, and they sacked six times. That said, if recent history is any indication, defense may be hard to come by Thursday. In their Week 6 meeting, Brees threw for 465 yards on 39 of 49 pa sing with four touchdowns and one interception. Of those 49 attempts, Brees was under pre sure just 12 times and he was sacked once all afternoon, according to Pro Football Focus' metrics. The Panthers opted to blitz just six times, hoping against hope that coverage could contain the Saints' offense Josh Harrison Jersey . Instead, Brees was an eye-popping 28 of 37 when facing no pre sure, throwing for 415 yards and three scores. New Orleans' rushing game wasn't a factor. Then again, it didn't need to be. On the other side of the ball, the Saints blitzed Newton on 23 of 47 Colin Moran Jersey dropbacks, but he fared well, completing 14 pa ses for 165 yards with a touchdown and a pick. But when not pre sured, Newton was 20 of 30 for 236 yards, which works out to only 7.9 yards per attempt (compared to Brees' 11.2 YPA when not facing pre sure).CBSSports.com's Pete Prisco's prediction This is a survival game for these two, especially Carolina. Both are coming off lo ses, but the Saints are playing better. Even so, I think and company find a way here to pull this out. Prisco's final score: Panthers 27, Saints 21Our prediction The Panthers blew what appeared to be an insurmountable lead against the Chiefs last Sunday, and it's clear that this group isn't the same as their 2014 counterparts. That team sat at 3-5-1 at this point in the season, but ripped off four straight to win the division with a 7-8-1 record. Plus, the Saints' defense is showing signs of life, which is great news for Drew Brees, who has been carrying this team for much of the previous two months. Our final score: Saints 31, Panthers 20